The international dimension of Brexit

Given that the referendum on the European Union deals with a key aspect of the United Kingdom’s relations with the external world, it seems pertinent to list the foreign supporters on each side. For although the referendum is being decided by the British electorate, it will have wider implications beyond these shores.
Not that you'll find much coverage of it in the press who are overwhelmingly pro-Leave.  As an example, Charles Moore, former editor of The Daily Telegraph, who still has his own column, accused the Remain camp of telling many lies without bothering to enumerate these 'lies' but providing a hyperlink to an article which also did not list any untruths.  The hyperlinked article did talk about projections and risks, which are just that, projections and risks.  Good old Charles Moore.  On the other hand, the Office of National Statistics, from whom Vote Leave claim they source their figures, have issued an unprecedented second reprimand to the campaign for the falsehood (emblazoned on Vote Leave's battlebus) that we send £50m a day to the EU.
Those who would like to see the UK to ‘Brexit’ are quite varied but it is hard for Vote Leave to leverage such support. Vladimir Putin has made no personal statement on the outcome of the vote (maybe because, for once, he does not know the outcome), yet the Kremlin’s propaganda TV Channel RT (formerly Russia Today) is very much in favour, drawing comparisons with the fall of the Soviet Union and the Kremlin does fund several anti-EU movements across the continent. Given that sanctions are up for renewal after the vote and London has been one the strongest proponents, that would be an immediate gain, especially because other EU members are wavering about renewal. But, more broadly, it plays into Russia’s hands of having an EU fragmenting and possibly distancing itself from the USA.
A man who needs no introduction, not least because he does his own PR under pseudonyms, is Donald Trump. Facts and rationality are not part of his patter but personal attacks are and when David Cameron refused to apologise for his ‘stupid and divisive’ comment after Trump proposed a ban on all Muslims entering the USA, the presumptive Republican candidate advised British voters to vote to leave. Maybe it was also to counterpoint himself to Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton) but there was an undertone of spite, to hurt Cameron with his prominent role for Remain, even perhaps to oust the prime minister should the UK leave. The Donald is not to be crossed!
One might think that Daesh (ISIS, IS, etc.) would have had their hands full with creating carnage across the Middle East but the upstart caliphate has weighed in on Brexit. Their official website is very supportive of a British departure, citing parallels with the decline and fall of the Roman Empire and the EU. After all, was not the withdrawal of the legions from Britannia in 410 the prelude to the collapse of the West?
In a boost for Brexit campaigner’s hope of a Commonwealth alliance, the former Liberal prime minister of Australia, arch conservative John Howard, has said he is in favour of Britain leaving. He did leave office so unpopular that he lost his own seat in the general election that brought down the curtain on his career but he does still have a certain cachet and name recognition. Winston Peters, a former deputy prime minister of New Zealand, finds the prospect of Brexit exciting.
Within Europe, Marine Le Pen and her Front National are dearly hoping for a decision to Brexit, as it would give momentum to them for their desire to take France out of the EU. Matteo Salvini, the head of the Italian far-right party Lega Nord (Northern League), Dutch Islamophobe Geert Wilders, Belgian Tom Van Grieken, leader of the Flemish far-right party Vlaams Belang and Vojislav Šešelj, founder of the far-right Serbian Radical Party, are all on the record of favouring Brexit.
Those who would prefer the UK to remain are also wide-ranging. Naturally, all incumbent governments of other EU members would prefer for the UK to stay inside the club. So would all the governments of the non-EU members of NATO, plus all living Secretary-Generals of the Alliance, past and present.
President Obama has made his intentions clear and Clinton, who hopes to succeed him, has fully endorsed his comments. A gaggle of past and present US officials who have been Secretaries of State, Defence and the Treasury have also come out unequivocally. They are backed by the IMF, the World Bank and the G7, who have got things wrong in the past, but does not mean they will be eternally incorrect. The current prime ministers of Canada (Justin Trudeau), Australia (Malcolm Turnbull) and New Zealand (John Key) have all backed Britain remaining, with the latter stating if Europe was its doorstep “we would be looking to join.” The more than 50 countries with whom Britain has signed a free trade accord, where EU membership is part of the deal, are nervous of a British departure.
If all this sounds like a global conspiracy by the ‘establishment’, Noam Chomsky, that notorious establishment sell-out, has said that Britain should vote to remain as the lesser of the two evils.
So the contrast looks a little lop-sided. For Leave, there is Putin, Trump, Antipodean has-beens and the (curdled) cream of European fascism. For Remain, there is pretty much the rest of the world, including the incumbent governments of all the UK’s friends and allies. Whatever sways you though, please vote.

Dear John letter to Republicans

How disappointing of John Kasich, especially doing it half an hour after my last post.  The next few states were favourable to him demographically and now he denying his peeps a vote against Trump.  Here was I hoping that it would mean California actually mattered in the GOP nominee race for the first time in 40 years and we had a bit more soapbox politics soap opera but no.
Kasich could have put his delegates with those of Cruz and Rubio (plus Fiorina!) and with a whole load of unpledged delegates in certain places he could have been within striking distance as the anti-Trump candidate.  That would take courage and cleverness.  Bernie Sanders is going all the way to the Democratic Convention even if he is mathematically eliminated on pledged delegates because he has ideas about how to transform politics and the Democrat party in particular and he keeps Hillary Clinton's feet to the fire.  Kasich had none of that beyond base political manoeuvring - that's why he was where he was and that's why he's gone now.

"Dad, it's Indiana." "I called the dog, Indiana."

Amid all the hoopla about the Hoosier State GOP declaration for Donald Trump, there were a few things that got overlooked in eerie Indiana and not just Bernie Sanders' surprise win defying the polls as he did in Michigan.  The Crossroads of America state because no-one wants to ever stop there.
First off, for all the hue and cry in the Republican Party that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee, with Ted Cruz pulling out, John Kasich is still in the race. With all the anti-Trump vote now shifting to him and with the prize of California homing into view a month from now, Kasich could still deny Trump the magical 1,237 delegates needed to win automatically the nomination.  Kasich's own delegate total is pathetic, still less than Marco Rubio's when he pulled out after the latter bombed in his home state of Florida on 15th March.  Yet and yet, there are plenty of upcoming winner-takes-all states coming up (California being a winner-takes-most) and if Trump has a ceiling of 40% of Republican votes and GOP members don't feel Kasich is a wasted vote,   True, after sliming Trump, the Grand Old Party's establishment is now greasing themselves up to Trump but if Kasich can force a contested convention, the establishment massively favoured him over Cruz as well as Trump.  Even if that doesn't prove to be the case, Kasich could be road-testing a 2020 bid.
At least the GOP don't have to worry about a third-party candidacy from the faithless Trump.  It would have been 1992 and 1996 all over again, with a Clinton riding to the White House from the division of conservative voters. It's actually a myth as Ross Perot took as many votes from the Democrats as the Republicans (much like Trump now) but facts stick in the craw when you can build a movement of resentment and now the reckoning has come as Trump taps into that resentment and breaks the GOP.  Like the ancien regime in France, they had it coming.
As for Carly Fiorina - thrust into the spotlight for a few days before being plunged into the dumpster as Cruz takes her with him.  A former Californian tech CEO was unlikely to find much of a constituency unless Cruz was trying to appeal to female voters.  She also had one whole delegate (from early voting by her supporters) to add to Cruz's total.  Fiorina's VP ticket must be one of the shortest in US electoral history as far as presidential elections go - more than merely quixotic, it was ultimate in tilting at windmills given that her senior running mate did not have a mathematical chance of an outright delegate vote.  Not one of the others candidates still running - Republican or Democrat - had made a vice-presidential pick so the presumption of Cruz in staggering.  The Indiana voters did not buy that it was 'business as usual'.  Cruz had to go as his had forsaken the 'Acela Primaries' to go hard on making a stand in Indiana.  Like Custer, it was in vain.  The Drudge Report had a good headline: "EliminaTED".
As for the Democrats, though Bernie Sanders got the headline state win, Hillary Clinton continued to rack up plenty of delegates in her remorseless drive to the nomination.  Sanders could win every remaining state and territory and still be behind on pledged delegates, let alone Superdelegates (who are mistrustful of this Socialist latecomer to the Democratic party, dubious about his chances of winning a general election and terrified of his isolationist stance that would see a significant diminution of American power around the world).  Despite his claims, he won't be able to peel those off from Clinton.