Finn-ished with neutrality? Finland and NATO

When Winston Churchill delivered his 1946 Fulton address, to him the northern limit of the Iron Curtain was Stettin (Szczecin) on the southern Baltic. Churchill did not extend it further north for Finland was not occupied by the Red Army (bar the Porkkala peninsula until 1956) though it was uncertain how it would respond to Soviet aggrandisement. To survive against the possibility of intervention from Moscow, the country unofficially adopted the doctrine that came to be known as ‘Finlandisation’, emasculating its foreign policy in the face of blandishments from the Kremlin, combined with media self-censorship. President Urho Kekkonen was the first non-Eastern Bloc leader to visit Czechoslovakia following the crushing of the Prague Spring. The elision of neutrality with sycophancy was the order of the day.
Such a low profile led to misconceptions of Finland, not least that it was dull. The ironic homage to the Land of a Thousand Lakes by Monty Python sealed it in the western imagination as “a poor second to Belgium when going abroad,” though as the same song alludes to ‘lofty mountains’ (Finland is remarkably flat bar a bobbling hills in the north), Michael Palin and Co had clearly not visited it (then).
When the USSR liberalised under Gorbachev before collapsing entirely, Helsinki – freed from the kowtow – became more expressive and determined to assert itself, joining the European Union in 1995 and the Euro four years later (for similar reasons to the Irish: to break dependence on a large neighbour, in this case Sweden). The thorny question of acceding to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) continues to divide opinion. The new prime minister, Alexander Stubb, is a keen advocate of fully enrolling in NATO and Helsinki agreed a Memorandum of Understanding with NATO on 22nd April 2014 that integrated Finnish military forces more closely with NATO and permitted NATO to assist Finland were the latter threatened.
The dark mutterings from Vladimir Putin’s administration about the consequences of such a step offends Finnish pride, making Stubb’s case for him. Russia’s actions, however, must shoulder much of the blame for Finnish flirting with NATO. In 2004, at the height of the Second Chechen War, there was a serious debate within Finland over whether to enter NATO. Such concern at the former imperial master’s violent reaction to Georgia’s actions in South Ossetia 2008 reignited among many a desire for group protection. More recently, Stubb is tapping into fears sparked by the annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian insurgents in the east of Ukraine. In summer 2013, 52% of Finns opposed membership of NATO against 29% in favour. In April 2014, the numbers had narrowed to 45% and 34% respectively. The downing of Flight MH17 and the Kremlin’s prickliness concerning it will only harden attitudes among Finns towards their eastern neighbour.
Stubb is an adept and eloquent politician and the longer the situation continues in eastern Ukraine, the more likely he is to get his way. In that sense, Moscow’s prolongation of the rebel tumult in Ukraine may be counter-productive if it induces another of its neighbours to join an alliance towards whom the Kremlin is once more antagonistic. Finland for its part would have to contend with having the longest land border of any NATO member with Russia.
The accusation in June 2014 by Putin’s personal envoy, Sergei Markov, that such talk is stirred by anti-Russian prejudice has more than a kernel of truth to it. Rightly viewing themselves as one of most honest civilisations on the planet (arguably to the point of naïvety in a domestic setting), the default assumption on hearing of criminality is to believe it Slavic in origin. I once had a jacket stolen from a cloakroom and remorseful Finns to whom I related this unpleasantness were of the united opinion that this was the work of Russian gangsters, without any corroborating evidence to support this contention. In many ways, Finnish antipathy to Russia (and, secondarily, Sweden) mirrors that of Mongolia – to whom they have a distant kinship – towards China (and, secondarily, Russia) – a distinctive reaction against the past imposition of imperium.
What consistently attracts more than 50% of Finnish support (notably from Swedish-speaking Finns in the south-west) is a defence pact with Sweden, though Western opinion was withering about a previously proposed Scandinavian Defence Union between Sweden, Norway and Demark in the late 1940s. Sir Orme Sargent, the senior British civil servant for foreign affairs, told his government in 1948 that 0 + 0 + 0 could never be more than zero. Norway and Demark joined NATO at its inauguration in 1949. Similar scepticism would be expressed in the capitals of major NATO countries today about a defensive union between Sweden and Finland.
Being neutral though is not to be nothing; on the contrary, it provides a special status for mediation and peace talks. Though Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and former President of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari, has urged his nation to come into NATO (maybe thinking of Norway not being compromised in its role in the Oslo Peace Process), neutrality is fashioned over decades and is hard to regain – Finland should be wary of abandoning it.

Read all about it

Maybe I missed a true calling in advertising.  When I was doing a mock A-Level English exam there was a question that provided us with a certain amount of information (along with parameters) and asked us to craft a form that encouraged kids to take up tennis in association with the Lawn Tennis Association.  I did so well in the task that it was read out in other A-Level English classes as a prime example of how to write a successful pamphlet.  What a shame it was only the mock A-Level exam rather than the real thing.
Recently, my office permitted me to go on a day-long training course on 'How to write a press release'.  Some of the information was more pertinent to my line of work than others but the concluding task was that each participant in this course (I was the only man among eight women) was asked to pick one scenario from five prospective situations and write a press release of no more than 300 words.  I decided to go for the 'Edible Insects' commercial release designed for the supermarket chains and top restaurants - so executives and chefs, rather than the general public via journalists.  This demanded a professional approach, still catching the eye but toning down the humour.
Knuckling down, I made sure I used all the points needed to convey the information - Who, What, Why, Where, When and How - adding a celebrity and an event to pique interest, with a scientific voice to lend credibility to the enterprise.  We were allowed our imagination full rein and people and events could be created if they served the overall purpose.  The course convenor was very impressed, though was unsure whether that it kept within the word limit - I showed her my paper pad, knowing that I write about 400 words to an A4 page.  Typing it up later (for myself), it came out at 188 words - considerably under the limit (!) but why use two words when one will do.  Given 20 minutes to write it out (some sections I had to cross out as either irrelevant or boring and every claim had to be independently verified), with a bit more time (and on a computer) I could have burnished it a little more.  See what you think:




Insects food of the future, says UN

The United Nations is backing an initiative to make insects a regular part of the average shopper’s basket, as part of its ‘world without hunger’ campaign. Nutritious and environmentally friendly, insects are numerous enough to be a sustainable food source for years to come, it claims.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is already funding insect farming in Asia and Africa and mealworm production is coming onstream in Europe. On 20th August, there will be an exhibition at London Zoo as a tasting session of more than 100 insect lines for the public to try. This will be hosted by Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall.
Alfred Jerkin, Professor of Zoology at Queen Mary University, said, “Insects are so plentiful, that not only are they environmentally friendly but they are very cheap to farm too. The taste can be delicious – locusts, for example, taste similar to honeyed waffles. It shouldn’t be a huge leap as we already eat prawns and the like.” FAO distribution centres have sprung up in Paddington, London, Victoria, Manchester and Gateshead, Newcastle to serve the expanding desire for edible insects.

Round-up

It's been exceptionally frustrating this past week not being able to access the internet - when one is incommunicado because of remote geography, that is one thing; to be in a Western urban centre where the internet is practically sloshing around is another.  For instance, I was unable to tweet on the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games - that what I saw of it anyway.  I was watching Poseidon Rex on the SyFy Channel and then I channel surfed and came across the last of the teams entering the arena - Malta, Northern Ireland, Wales and finally Scotland; even in a politically neutral event, the organisers in Glasgow still had to emphasise spurious links with the Celtic fringes, England entering somewhat earlier (strangely, the Isle of Man, which is part of the Celtic community was overlooked in this grouping but that's the simplicity of Scots nationalism for you).  I felt the neon-suited dancers incredibly amateurish - a modicum of choreography but essentially many just moved their arms and legs pretty much as they liked, as if they were at some sort of school disco.  Nevertheless, there was a vibrancy and friendliness to that part of the proceedings I saw - for instance, I don't recall any Olympic processions where some athletes sat on the shoulders of others, but then again for teams like Northern Ireland this is their moment in the sun and it was heart-warming to see them enjoy themselves.  I liked Billy Connolly's video-link anecdote about Glasgow's connection to Nelson Mandela, even though Connolly said Mandela was released in 1993, thereby unintentionally incarcerating the South African titan for three years longer than the history books state.  As for the actual Games, it's all passed me by, even though competitors like Jersey and Guernsey are interesting for their exclusion for other international sporting events and hence their uniqueness here.
I wouldn't say it was a great loss that Poseidon Rex took up more of my evening viewing on Wednesday.  It conformed to all the conventions of sci-fi schlock horror (any protagonists, especially beautiful women, that suffer facial lacerations will die; single people are vulnerable, etc.) and the CGI was pretty ropey, the budget extending to only animating the amphibious dinosaur and a couple of its offspring - thus the monster had the effect of a neutron bomb, wiping out people but leaving buildings and forests untouched.  It was all pleasing in a silly way and the producers knew what they were doing when they made the hot blonde woman (who's also a scientific anthropologist, of course) get jiggy with the rogueish main protagonist (she knew single people are vulnerable).  I watched American Dad after the opening ceremony and that episode concluded in a remarkably similar way to Poseidon Rex which I watched no more than a couple of hours earlier - a massive monster emerges from the deep and receives a bazooka straight into the mouth, blowing up the head, the bazooka operator standing in a stationary speedboat - what a coincidence.
Anyway, my internet was fixed on Thursday morning.  On Thursday evening, I went over to some friends' place, stayed longer than I intended, drinking whiskey and latterly vodka. The next day I suffered a moderately severe hangover, was fairly busy at work, came home, ate my dinner, then fell asleep to 1.30am.  And here I am now.

Discount journalism

With the death of one of the co-founders of the Aldi s retail empire, Karl Albrecht, aged 94.  One could palpably detect the snobbery going on as the BBC detailed his early beginnings, as if this confirmed their prejudices against the supermarket chain.  Titbits such as the re-use of pencil stubbs to do the accounts in the early days neglects the context in which Germans after the war were desperately poor - an American GI in Berlin recalled how he threw a cigarette butt in the gutter and several Berlin men pounced to seize possession of it.   As I've said before. 'discount' is used as a pejorative by journalists - a near-synonym for 'knock-off'.  And although the fruit and vegetables are generally the leftovers of what the bigger chains cannot sell (hence a shorter shelf-life) and repackaged at the warehouses, I was in Sainsbury's on Monday, perusing the fruit section and every single punnet of strawberries has at least one mouldy piece of fruit.
If cheapness were the only concern, I would not frequent Aldi often - it is the quality they can bring to their stores that is crucial.  To focus on just 2,000 ranges rather than the 10,000 that the bigger British-based supermarkets do, allows them to specialise in low prices and, largely, high quality. Karl Albrecht was convinced that — according to a company statement — “customers with a very limited income should also be able to eat and drink quality food. He saw this as his calling.”  The British middle-class have embraced the value-for-money ethos in the age of austerity and are likely to keep returning.

Halfway point

It's midway through the excursion of Kimberley and Altaa to Mongolia.  They've been gone 42 days and they will return in 42 days.  Of course, I miss them, but I've always been enterprising in occupying myself, be that in the form of industry or in the form of slacking.  My means for either of these options has been greatly curtailed by my modem going kaput.  Kimberley bore responsibility last time and so is in the clear this time.  So, in the absence of home internet (until Thursday at least, when the engineer comes - hopefully), I will revert to the good old/bad old days before the arrival of the internet.  This post comes from my office after the working day is done.

The Buk stops...

As always in air disasters, the saddest aspects are the beloved toys of children who died along with the other passengers; in the case of MH17, a stuffed monkey that will be played with no more.  Unlike aircraft crashes that were the fault of freak natural occurrences, mechanical failure or pilot error, when someone deliberately destroys the craft, even through misdentification, anger will flow from even parties with no connection to anyone on board and I'm furious at this slaughter of innocents.  More than that, roughly a hundred HIV/AIDS experts were travelling to a conference in Melbourne (obviously intending to switch flights at Kuala Lumpur) - more people will die than just those on the plane.  As one AIDS global specialist already in Melbourne said, "The cure could have been on that plane [to come in the future out of the minds of those who perished).
Even in accidents there is a blame game but this is a geopolitical 'incident' (though neutral, the word seems less than adequate as a description of this horror).  So who is here?  The primary responsibility lies with the Ukrainian separatists and their ethnic Russian fellow-travellers who have come over the border.  It is documented by Associated Press that they saw Buk missile launchers in rebel hands last week on 11th July (backed up with footage).  That a new video has emerged showing a Buk missile launcher on a truck heading across the border into Russia, minus two missiles, brings us to the people next most responsible - the security establishment controlling the Kremlin.  Not only have they stirred up this crisis in eastern Ukraine, fomenting chaos as a way of saying 'look, we still matter in this country', but it would have taken Russian military expertise to operate a Buk - I doubt that the rag-tag rebels would have that knowledge, no matter that such missile delivery systems fell into their hands when they began the insurrection.  Radio intercepts released by Ukrainian security services of Russian-speaking 'operators' discussing the destruction of the plane, realising to their horror that it was civilian seem credible, given that the Russians have not produced counter-evidence, as assuredly the FSB would if it existed, only denials.  The mention of a 'Kazakh' team (though that could be a mistranslation of 'cossack') is intriguing as many ethnic Russians used to live in Kazakhstan and hold dual nationality - most likely they are a black-ops Russian military brigade.  It follows on from the Ukrainian defence minister two months ago claiming their troops had killed Chechens in their offensive, a distinct ethnic group within the Russian Federation.  Vladimir Putin has made no bones about wishing to reconstitute the USSR and though he may be sanguine about a new Cold War, I doubt he had in mind repeating the downing of a civilian with hundreds of passengers as happened with the South Korean 747 in 1983 - leading to the highest East-West tension since the Cuban Missile crisis.  Sectoral sanctions by western governments have to follow because of Moscow's irresponsibility and intransigence.
Which brings us to the the Americans and their lily-livered allies in Europe.  Defence contracts have to be cancelled in the UK and France, Germany must play hardball now that it is the height of summer and energy disruption won't be so high - what happened to that EU plan to find an alternative to Russian supplies within 90 days?  They have been gutless recently, too afraid of endangering the European economy in the short-term that they fail to see the bigger picture of threat (a situation of which Putin is free thanks to stage-managed elections - of course he's going to win in 2018).  The USA has been a bit stronger in applying further-ranging sanctions to Russia on Wednesday yet now the pressure will be to ramp them up further.  If the western governments had acted with more solidarity and sense (principle doesn't enter into foreign policy decisions), instead of dithering over Crimea and then trying their best to forget the eastern Ukraine, Russia may have balked at getting its fingers burned from playing with fire.  So, in a sense, it is the weakness and cynicism of western governments that has led to a jet airliner becoming collateral damage.
Malaysian Airlines bears some of the blame.  A Dutch tourist, prior to boarding, posted a picture of the aeroplane with the caption 'If the plane goes missing, this is what it looks like'.  The trauma of losing MH370, probably over the Indian Ocean, should have prompted a complete overhaul of operating procedure at the airline, to take no risks whatsoever.  They dropped their prices in the wake of MH370 but does this explain the decision to fly over, rather than around, the scene of fighting to save money on fuel or was it always company policy before the disappearance of MH370?  They weren't alone in that but there were few other airlines who tempted fate.  Saving fuel costs was the reason that the Korean Air Lines Flight 007 cut across Soviet airspace back in 1983.  No matter how low they drop their prices now, the company is irreparably tarnished and may be bought out.
Last and most definitely least to blame is the government in Kiev.  They would not have shot the plane down because the rebels have no aircraft they can fly themselves.  Moscow claims the fault lies with Kiev for resuming the military offensive, as if the latter could let the east of the country which accounts for much of its economy slip permanently from its control, to be run by gangsters and Russian viceroys.  It may seem a small point but Russia was right to say responsibility lies with the country in whose airspace this occurred.  It is akin to attributing the sinking of the Titanic to the arrangement of the deckchairs rather than the iceberg, but Kiev didn't choose to declare the whole area a no-fly zone to all except its military fleet, preferring to keep collecting the air tolls for overflights.  Now because of that short-sighted greediness, they may lose a whole lot more in terms of overflight tolls, as operators give the entire country a miss.  All that said, the Kiev government and all those who serve under it are least deserving of opprobrium.  The buck stops primarily with the separatists and the Russian military-security establishment.

Time and again

What is it with Moscow governments and shooting down innocent civilian jetliners?  Okay, the US accidentally downed an Iranian jetliner in the Persian Gulf, but Russia has now two, if we don't count the downing of Gary Powers' U2 in 1960.  In 1983, Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was shot out of the sky by Soviet interceptor jets.  Now we have the destruction of a Malaysian Airlines aircraft (still with the trauma of the missing MH370 raw) over Russian-rebel controlled Ukraine.  Russia and the rebels have instantly blamed Kiev but the evidence counts against them.  The kind of a missile system that could send missiles to 34,000ft, a Buk, was present when separatists took over military bases in eastern Ukraine.  A Buk in rebel hands was seen moving around the region last week.  Further, the rebels were bragging about it on social media about downing the aircraft and Igor Strelkov, the military leader of the insurrection, made a comment on Twitter, later deleted, regarding it on the lines that aircraft above them would be destroyed.  In addition, the Ukrainian government has released radio intercepts (which we should treat with caution) about panicky Russian-speakers realising their mistake.  Maybe the gutless western European governments that temporised over applying further sanctions with rediscover their courage given that it's their own nationals who have died.
Moscow is also repeating what it did in the Korean War, sending military aircraft to attack its foes without officially saying they were doing so.  The Ukrainian government has said that a Russian jet fighter shot down one of Kiev's aircraft.  The Ukrainian executive is elected and recently in a free and fair ballot, the Russian executive was not elected freely and fairly, so I'm inclined to believe Kiev over Moscow.
The US has imposed further sanctions and on Russian sectors not just individuals and Vladimir Putin called up Barack Obama to complain, when during the call the Russian president was informed of the destruction of the Malaysian airliner.  Nice as it would be for Putin to come clean and say, "Actually Barack, you were entirely right to slap sanctions on us," it would never occur.  It's all about denial.  If they want to believe their own propaganda then there is no helping them and it's time to lock their energy sector out of trading in dollars, sterling and euros.  That might make the Kremlin re-evaluate their stance.

A decision that is a wall short of a few BRICS

It seems Jim O'Neill's influence remains resolute in the minds of policymakers.  The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) developing countries have pooled their resources into an international bank of their own, to break the dominance of western elites in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, yet would they have ever come together as the group that they are had O'Neill not coined the acronym.  They are not as exclusive in their economic performance relative to other countries as they think, with economic diversification divergent only in how far apart they are (e.g. Russia produces primarily raw materials, China primarily manufactured products).  Moreover, India and China have serious differences on a range of issues.
China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the contingency currency pool, or $41bn. Brazil, India and Russia will contribute $18bn each and South Africa $5bn. If a need arises, China will be eligible to ask for half of its contribution, South Africa for double and the remaining countries the amount they put in.  Negotiations to initiate this bank have dragged on for two years as these five countries try to compartmentalise themselves within O'Neill's formulation and agreement was only reached at the 11th hour due to Sino-Indian locking of horns regarding headquarters and presidency.
O'Neill back in 2011 repeated his trick creating the MIST - Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey - on the next rung down as emerging markets as the BRICS.  Nothing much has come of this though as South Korea must resent being pigeon-holed alongside the other three, given its GDP per capita is a rival to many western European countries, not to mention being a member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).  Their commonalities are: a large population and market, a big economy at about 1% of global GDP each, and all are members of the G20.  But their elites, especially those in Seoul, must have recognised it would be slightly crackpot to band together by the inspiration of a very broad categorisation from a senior banker aiming to help his banking colleagues with a schematic rather creating a new international concert of powers.

The final curtain

As William Hague steps down as Foreign Secretary (while retaining the honorific First Secretary of State), probably the best Foreign Secretary since Malcolm Rifkind, if not Douglas Hurd (Blair's Foreign Secretaries were emasculated by Downing Street's 'Sofa Government' and the less said about David Miliband's tenure, the better), it is time to remember Eduard Shevardnadze who died last week.  Mikhail Gorbachev's Foreign Secretary from 1985 to 1991, mirroring the length of his office of his boss, the wily Georgian Shevardnadze coined the USSR's foreign policy - as the Cold War was wound down - towards it's Eastern European satellites as the 'Sinatra Doctrine', meaning each former client could conduct their governments how they saw fit i.e. 'My Way'.
Of course, the implication was that the 'Little Stalins' were on their own, the Sinatra Doctrine replacing the Brezhnev Doctrine of intervention slapping down divergent paths of communism, as was the case with crushing the Prague Spring in 1968.  Furthermore, it was doctrine resulting from weakness - as the USSR disintegrated from a mixture of its own internal contradictions and Gorbachev's reforms, it withdrew many (though not all) of its troops to save money, with the military budget reaching a third of total GDP (unsustainable in the long-term). 
It could be argued that Brezhnev Doctrine also demonstrated weakness, not in the military hold that the USSR exercised, but in the whole concept of state-sponsored Marxist-Leninism (the rubbish spouted by the Czechoslovak leadership before the invasion to mollify the Warsaw Pact, affirming unshakable fidelity to proletarian internationalism and declared an implacable struggle against 'bourgeois' ideology and all 'anti-socialist' forces, is parodic).  That it endured only in the medium-term is proof of that.  Yet the Sinatra Doctrine reactivated the centrifugal forces of the Soviet Union itself - if the client states could do it their way, why not the constituent republics under Moscow's direct aegis?
When the USSR ceased to exist officially on Christmas Day 1991, so did Shevardnadze's position as Foreign Secretary - it could not be otherwise.  But he reinvented himself as the saviour of Georgia, as the breakaway republic became subject to its own internal separatist tendencies from Adzharia (Adjara), Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Content to rule a de facto truncated domain, turning a blind eye to the domestic affairs in each of these regions, Shevardnadze staggered on as president, surviving numerous assassination attempts and generally ruling in an authoritarian manner (Stalin is still regarded as a national hero), corrupt elections securing his power.  This boiled over in 2003 when blatant vote-rigging for parliamentary elections provoked the Rose Revolution, the first of the Colour Revolutions of the 21st century so beloved of the Bush the Younger administration (Professor Richard Sakwa characterises Serbia as the first 'colour revolution' in 2000, but the opposition never adopted a colour and followed similar policies as occurred in Bulgaria in 1997, Slovakia in 1998 and Croatia in 2000).  Shevardnadze narrowly escape the storming of parliament and was finished as a political force in Georgia.
The Sinatra Doctrine, whatever the underlying motivations, was a liberalising force in conjunction with Glasnost and Perestroika at home - it allowed a wide swathe of democratisation to emerge across Eastern Europe, thereafter guaranteeing civil society no matter the gripes about individual politicians.  Shevardnadze's second act in high office, as president of Georgia, was very ignominious though and a sad end to his career, both for himself and the small Caucasus state.

Champions of the world

Germany are crowned FIFA World Cup champions but not for the first time since 'reunification' - the Federal Republic of Germany (colloquially 'West Germany') in existence for previous triumphs in 1954, 1974 and 1990.  The German Democratic Republic ('East Germany') ceased to exist in 1990 as it was gobbled up by the FRG - there was no unification between the two states, it was annexation.
Last night's final was all nip and tuck between two evenly matched teams.  Argentina knowing they would tire later on from having one day's less rest than Germany, plus extra time against the Dutch, made the early running.  They had the better of the chances in the first half and Germany seemed unsettled. After 50 minutes, though the South Americans faded and the northern Europeans gradually took charge.  It was intriguing rather than explosive and I was glad it went to extra time so I could enjoy another half hour of this fascinating joust.
Germany were worthy winners by the end and Mario Götze's 113th minute strike befitting a goal to win football's ultimate trophy (and incidentally equalling France '98's total of 171 goals).  It would have been a shame had it needed penalties to separate these two great sides and the magnanimous Germans showed their class in forming a guard of honour for their vanquished opponents, recognising the excellence of the Argentinians.  Messi virtually disappeared after dragging a shot wide in the 47th minute and his final touch, ballooning a free-kick over the bar summed up his night - a night which showed that he did not belong in the same category as Maradona or Pelé.  I was glad overall that the Germans won as they didn't rely on a talisman - they were simply the best team in Brazil, with the best coach in Joachim Löw, a man prpeared for every eventuality such as losing a key midfielder in the warm-up and the replacement after half an hour.
I watched it on the BBC.  It was Alan Hansen's last punditry and he was joined by Alan Shearer, soon to be the only Alan on Match of the Day.  Rio Ferdinand completed the trio with whom Gary Lineker bantered and he was wearing a double-breasted baggy blue suit, probably in tribute to Bobby Robson's grey attire in Italia '90.  A stylish touch after the match when returning to studio was a hologram of the German Football Association emblem was crowned initially by three stars before they shifted along and a fourth star materialised to symbolise Germany's four World Cup triumphs.

The runners-up runners-up

The Third Place Play-off in the FIFA World Cup has been called utterly meaningless and Louis van Gaal made no bones about how he would rather be in Manchester inaugurating his Old Trafford reign than contesting this curtain-raiser for the final.  I, however, think this 'losers' final is very worthwhile for the non-superpowers whose ability could carry them to the semi-final and no further.  Had Costa Rica triumphed in the penalties over the Netherlands, you can bet your house that they'd like to finish officially as high in the tournament as possible.  Turkey revelled in finishing third at the 2002 World Cup and South Korea were quite disappointed that they could not attain that themselves.  Like England in 1990, the Dutch in 1998 went into a pouting fugue at not making the final, but don't tell the Croatians it meant nothing - it was the most glorious achievement in their short footballing history to finish third.  Sweden were happy to secure third over Bulgaria in 1994 given that the final wasn't to be.  Even finishing fourth isn't a disaster as they still get certificates (rather than bronze medals) as tangible proof of their partial success - recognising greats like Peter Shilton or Luis Figo.  Moreover, it's a crumb of comfort to a host nation that falls at the final hurdle if they can finish in the bronze medal position as it was for Germany in 2006 and Italy in 1990.  That was the game plan for Brazil but it didn't pan out that way.
These boys from Brazil will be even more loathed than their fictional namesakes.  They upset not just their own nation but a lot of senior international pundits who grew up revering the seleção, plus North Korea who thought that their own drubbing against Portugal in 2010 (the first time the authorities had ever shown their national football team play live to their populace) could be put in perspective, only for Oscar to pop up in the 90th minute and make it 7-1.  In a way, Neymar was lucky to have a vertebrae fractured that ruled him out of that farrago of a performance.
I was a big fan of the Dutch but to not score in four hours as van Gaal was determined to become the first Dutch coach not to lose in normal or extra time.  Stifling Argentina in the same manner as Belgium and Switzerland, they deserved to lose on penalties for sucking the life out of the game, which they probably would have repeated in the final.  The Dutch peaked too early in winning all three of their games in the most lethal of the Groups of Death, humbling the Spanish 5-1
The Confederations Cup win in 2013 by Brazil was illusory as the gilded era of Spanish dominance was on its way out as proved definitively in this tournament.  They were too many weaknesses in Brazil and Luiz Felipe Scolari felt the pressure to win beautifully as the host nation where previously he had achieved success with a 'play ugly, win many' modus operandi with Brazil in 2002 (with a far more exalted choice of players available) and Portugal 2004-06.  Some of the players were abysmal.  Paulinho had one touch, if that, in the first 45 minutes - not so much a passenger as the occupant of the hearse.  Hulk went through his usual routine of 'Hulk shoots, Hulk misses, Hulk sad'.  Jo was absolutely no improvement on the non-scoring goalscorer Fred.  And David Luiz - £50m, to be teamed with Thiago Silva at the heart of the Paris St-Germain defence suggests the Qataris want to give Monaco a more realistic rack at Ligue 1 next season.  I've tweeted through many World Cup games, really improving my 'digital footprint' but not the final, particularly as I missed in real time the Dutch making it 3-0 against Brazil as I focused on getting my spelling correct.  I've kind of come around to the Germans winning - one reason is that Miroslav Klose will right the anomaly of being the top World Cup goalscorer without actually winning it; also, given the expense the Brazilians have forked out to pay for the tournament (partly through being so tardy at getting their act together they had to pay double- and triple-time to get the show halfway ready), it's unlikely there will be another World Cup in South America, even when their 'turn' comes up again in 20 years, so it's imperative that a European team wins for the first time on South American soil.  I won't be unhappy if Argentina do it, for Messi, but the Germans seem the complete package, deserving rather than lucky.

The multiverse resplendent

Ah! The joys of the multiverse in the DC and Marvel comics, permitting variance in narrative to derive from an alternate timeline that is now a separate universe in a different reality.  In the case of long-running superhero franchises equipped at one stage or another by writers and producers of varying cognisance, this is a significant 'Get Out of Jail Free' card to avoid awkward questions at ComicCons.
The big-screen X-Men outings are a case in point.  Though the first three in the early part of the millennium were vaguely coherent as a trilogy and even two Wolverine prequels did not detract from that, once X-Men: First Class was released, certain gaps, nay chasms, became apparent not just to aficionados but those with merely a good memory.  In X-Men (the first one), Professor X/Charles Xavier (Patrick Stewart) tells Wolverine/Logan (Hugh Jackman) that Cerebro, the computer that allows Professor X to use his telepathy to locate super-powered mutants across the world, was built by he himself, Xavier, along with his hitherto best friend Erik Lehnsherr (AKA Magneto).  In First Class, this is hogwash.  Though Xavier could have been lying (for no apparent reason), in First Class Cerebro is built largely by Hank 'The Beast' McCoy.  More glaringly, in X-Men:The Final Stand, bald Patrick Stewart is granted a small walking part at the start as a novelty value to his usual wheelchair-bound state.  This is contradicted when a stray bullet paralyses James McAvoy as a young Charles Xavier with a full head of hair at the end of First Class.  This latter film, with the young X-Men involved in the run-up to and during the Cuban Missile Crisis, was referenced as a stylish counterfactual by one reviewer, thinking of history but it was also true of comic tradition too.
X-Men: Days of Future Past plays a very clever trick that involves not just the multiverse but an alternate timeline too.  In a dystopian future, merciless, implacable robots called Sentinels (bar emitting flames from their heads, they are unlike their pastel-coloured direct Marvel incarnation, being more like the separate creations of Phalanx and the Awesome Android in both appearance and abilities) have hunted down not not just all super-powered mutants but those who have the X-gene that means their children or grandchildren would become mutants, though they themselves are not.  Ordinary humans rebelling against this slaughter are either destroyed or enslaved, leaving the worst of humanity in charge. New York and Moscow are semi-derelict ruins, though the Great Wall of China is in good nick.  Wolverine's consciousness is sent back in time to avert the creation of the Sentinels and, in trying to convince a depressed Xavier of the past that the threat is real, he lets the professor search through his mind, revealing snippets of all the previous movies, albeit excerpts that do not clash the current narrative.  It's a nice touch.  Later on, Xavier (in his youngish, McAvoy self) expresses, "I believe one day we will all be together."  Ostensibly, he is excusing the departure of former friends, now semi-foes, Magneto (Michael Fassbender) and Raven/Mystique (Jennifer Lawrence).  I'm more of the opinion that it's a plea for bringing together a Marvel Universe divided by copyright (X-Men and all 'mutants' are owned by Marvel Studios; the film rights to the Avengers, Hulk, Captain America, Iron Man, Thor and the Fantastic Four were sold to 20th Century Fox; the intellectual silver screen rights to Spiderman are held by Sony), though it could equally apply to the unification of the X-Men franchise to date here.
One critic called Days of Future Past, 'the Goldfinger of X-Men movies'not only in being a brilliant exposition of concept but in cementing the formula for all future outings in the franchise.  For me, Goldfinger is the apogee of James Bond, whereas here, I don't know, I've still got a soft spot for First Class.  The Proustian title (borrowed from a Marvel Comics storyline) lends the 2014 offering a certain aura, further burnished by adopting a conceit of The Godfather Part II in having a partial backdrop of a crucial historical event on the margins of mainstream consciousness to serve as a canvas.  With the mafiosi masterpiece, it was the onset of the Cuban Revolution and the subsequent fallout.  In Days of Future Past, it is the winding down of US involvement in Vietnam and the Paris Peace Talks.  Wolverine's mind is sent back into his 1970s body to stop Mystique assassinating the scientist who created the first Sentinels, Dr Bolivar Trask (Peter Dinklage), thereby, ironically, justifying the deployment of the machines.
An exceptional cast has been assembled which in light of acting and other commitments is no small achievement.  In the dystopian future, Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen (older Magneto), Halle Berry (Storm), Shawn Ashmore (Bobby/Iceman), Daniel Cudmore (Colossus) and Ellen Page (Kitty Pryde, who can phase through objects and send consciousness back in time) all return from the first trilogy, while in the alternate future Famke Janssen (Jean Grey), James Marsden (Scott Summers/Cyclops), Anna Paquin (Rogue) and uncredited cameo from Kelsey Grammar (as older Beast) are other old-stagers appearing (relationships are also realigned with the union of Kitty Pryde and Iceman transmuted into her going out with Colossus and he with Rogue, as in the comics).  In the 1970s, in addition to James McAvoy, Jennifer Lawrence and the fantastic Michael Fassbender (can he ever turn in a bad performance?), Nicholas Hoult (Hank McCoy/ younger Beast) and Lucas Till (Havok) return from First Class, plus photographs of Jason Flemyng and Zoë
 Kravitz as the deceased Azazel and Angel Salvadore respectively.  I was a little disappointed that January Jones didn't reappear as Emma Frost (except in passing mention), being given little to do in First Class apart from be the impassive consort of Sebastian Shaw (Kevin Bacon), misinterpreting the White Queen as the ice queen.  Straddling all three scenarios is Wolverine/Logan played with the usual charisma by Hugh Jackman.
The casting of Peter Dinklage, fresh from Game of Thrones, as the villainous Trask is inspired.  In the comics, he was a standard-sized man but Dinklage's diminutive stature crystallises Trask's persona so he is not lost amid the welter of characters, as well as carrying a number of connotations about his motivations (such as the alleged Small Man Syndrome, positing that a desire to conquer is ingrained by a perceived inferiority and fear of vulnerability deriving froom size, as was the case with Napoleon Hitler and Mussolini).  Although truly Trask is a monster (far more than in the comics), a mixture of Mengele (for the experiments) and Eichmann (for the rollout of extermination), Dinklage invests him with enough empathy to show that his passion is a misguided attempt to save humanity.  Told by his aide, Major William Stryker (Josh Helman, later in the franchise timeline to be Wolverine's nemesis as Colonel Stryker through Danny Huston and Brian Cox), "You must really hate mutants," Trask replies that he strangely admires them but this is a war against extinction (for homo sapiens).  His earlier testimony to a closed Senate committee hearing deployed the then-fashionable but not discredited theory that just as homo sapiens wiped out neanderthals so mutants would do the same with homo sapiens.  Amusingly for those in the know, he asks Stryker about the latter's son, thinking him ordinary but we are aware that Stryker's mutant antipathy is made rabid by his son turning out to be a mutant and manifesting his powers destructively.
Schematically, Days of Future Past follows First Class in which the main villain is thwarted but Magneto parlays this into his own machinations and so also needs to be stopped.  The merits of forgiveness over the veracity of revenge are also well-aired and directed.  As with many superhero flicks, there is also the desire to throw more names from the comics into the mix as a sop to originality.  In the dystopia, we are introduced to Bishop (Omar Sy), Blink (Bingbing Fan), Sunspot (Adan Canto) and Warpath (Booboo Stewart, son of Patrick), the latter three along with Colossus and Iceman suffering violent deaths not once but twice over (one of the Sentinels uses the sharpened fingers/prongs ability that are a hallmark of Lady Deathstrike from X2).  In the 1970s, Toad (Evan Jonigkeit), Ink (Gregg Lowe) and others are present.  Portrayed by Evan Peters, there is also Peter (Pietro) Maximoff (otherwise known as Quicksilver but never referred so as such) who unwittingly alludes to Magneto as his father though this kind of obviates the comics contention that he and his sister (a blink-and-miss-it appearance by Wanda Maximoff, here labelled 'Peter's little sister' (Miya Shelton-Contreras) but actually the future Scarlet Witch) were raised by gypsy foster parents.  Peter's assistance in the jailbreak on the Pentagon is one of the sublime moments of the movie, Peters' cheekiness and cocksure behaviour a joy.  It's rather s shame the character effectively bows out a third of the way through.
There are excellent moments too such as unexpectedly seeing McAvoy's Xavier walking again (I shut my eyes and hummed during the trailers for this to keep an element of surprise) and enjoying driving - "Don't get used to it," as Logan says.  Elsewhere, we have Stewart resuming is opening voiceover like Jean-Luc Picard in Star Trek: The Next Generation and as Xavier in the first X-Men films; Fassbender's Magneto systematically dismantling an early Sentinel advancing on him; the drug addiction of Xavier's McAvoy is handled tenderly; the surprise alliance of the elderly Professor X and Magneto; the Nixon tapes being switched off (as a harbinger of Watergate); the presidential bunker crashing through the White House colonnades; and a myriad of excellent action sequences.  The future Sentinels are suitably fearsome.  The 1970s grime and slack fashion is well-conceived in contrast to the stylish tailoring of First Class (though when Xavier, Logan and McCoy all wear brown leather jackets it's a little cloying).  One of the best bits, however, is the subversion of product placement for companies like Mountain Dew, the hoardings collapsing and disintegrating in a discreet thumbing of the nose.
Of course, Days of Future Past has its weaknesses. McAvoy will have to start losing his hair soon if he is to be a recognisably conventional Professor X.  Indeed, none of the returning characters seem to have aged particularly, despite the passage of eleven years, even though slow ageing is only the preserve of Wolverine (who has a few grey tones finally as his 2023 self) and Raven/Mystique.  After being sprung from Hannibal Lector-like seclusion, Magneto is curiously well-informed about the deaths of mutants from First Class, no matter he was in solitary confinement for a decade.  President Kennedy revealed as a mutant is a little twee.  It's anachronistic for the North Vietnamese to be celebrating 'victory' and the Americans bewailing 'defeat' in 1973.  The US Airforce had just bombed Hanoi to the negotiating table.  Impressions of defeat emerged with hindsight following the fall of Saigon two years later.  Also, Soviet and North Vietnamese top brass would never have sat round the same table as their Beijing counterparts - they were all communists, yes, but the USSR and the People's Republic of China were fighting a de facto border war and the PRC had cut off all aid to Hanoi following the rapprochement with the USA.  Going on, it feels a little incredible that Xavier lets Magneto escape given the latter's propensity for death and destruction.  The newspaper front page that ties up most of the loose ends is a cliché at its most contrived, not least as some of its stories would not all happen at the same time (surely Trask's treason would not be disclosed straightaway).
Still, these are minor quibbles in a fine accomplishment.  With the events occurring in Days of Future Past, the world we see is a very different Earth to our own, cleverly encapsulating the multiverse.  Next up is X-Men: [Age of] Apocalypse, set in the 1980s (the ancient En Sabah Nur appears in a post-credits sequence), where we will meet young versions of Cyclops and Jean Grey.  I hope the high standards will be maintained.  Thunderball following on from Goldfinger was good but without quite the brilliance of its predecessor.  Four out of five.

In Memoriam

As one gets older, so some anniversaries get heavier.  Had my younger brother not died as a toddler, partly as a result of chaotic hospital maladministration, he would have been 30 today.  A mature adult, perhaps with a young family of his own to tend, but it was never to be.

How do we stop drugs getting into prison?

It was Michael Howard, then Conservative Home Secretary, who declared that, “Prison works.” His critics would suggest it only works in turning the ingénue convict into the hardened criminal. This is compounded by a prison culture where drug abuse is rife within the supposedly secure confines of the penitentiary.
Huseyin Djemil, a former head of drug treatment policy for the National Offender Management Service, which oversees prisons and the probation service, estimates that roughly half the prison population are addicts at any one time, a scale underestimated by the Prison Service. A BBC investigation in 2008 found that the main supply routes were: ‘drops’ thrown over exterior walls; clandestinely handovers during visits; and even via complicit prison officers.
Government measures are reactive, inadequate and potentially dangerous. As Jenny McCartney says, Justice Secretary Chris Grayling’s recent ban on send-in parcels appealed “more to populist prejudice than practical common sense.” It symbolised the ineffective official response. Mandatory Drug Testing (MDT), the government flagship drug control programme, where prisoners are tested on a random basis is far more serious in fostering complacency. The statistics are prone to manipulation and testing regimes are predictable while it encourages Class A drug use as these opiates do not stay in the system as long as lesser-strength drugs such as cannabis. The Scottish authorities have already abandoned MDTs in response to these concerns and the belief that it discouraged take-up of drug treatment programmes. Other deterrent measures such as CCTV and ‘drug dogs’ have their limitations too and prisons are notorious for not sharing information with other agencies.
Djemil proposes a whole new strategy that is intelligence-led but in the form of analysing market trends and characteristics, such as the number of prisoners using drugs in prison, the size of the prison drugs market or the price of drugs in prison – information not currently available – and understanding the system that underpins the market e.g. drug storage, payment mechanisms and sales methods – receiving little or no attention at the moment. To identify and disrupt the market, Djemil argues that good intelligence based on this new approach “would allow the targeted allocation of resources in order of priority.”
Political will in determining to eradicate drugs rather than just ‘manage’ the problem is essential, as is resisting media pressure in abandoning ‘follow the drug’ policy, which is throwing good money after bad as current systems fail. Implementation of the National Intelligence Model (NIM) would professionalise and improve intelligence work across the law enforcement agencies and to enable the compilation of standardised intelligence products. It should be of the utmost value of the Prison Service and the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) and ministers need to champion and resource this. The recruitment of experts who are skilled in data capture and intelligence systems would build the competence and confidence of prison staff. Finally, all drug treatment strategies need to have the ultimate aim of helping prisoners move away from addiction altogether. Then prison really would work.