Wednesday, July 16, 2014

A decision that is a wall short of a few BRICS

It seems Jim O'Neill's influence remains resolute in the minds of policymakers.  The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) developing countries have pooled their resources into an international bank of their own, to break the dominance of western elites in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, yet would they have ever come together as the group that they are had O'Neill not coined the acronym.  They are not as exclusive in their economic performance relative to other countries as they think, with economic diversification divergent only in how far apart they are (e.g. Russia produces primarily raw materials, China primarily manufactured products).  Moreover, India and China have serious differences on a range of issues.
China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the contingency currency pool, or $41bn. Brazil, India and Russia will contribute $18bn each and South Africa $5bn. If a need arises, China will be eligible to ask for half of its contribution, South Africa for double and the remaining countries the amount they put in.  Negotiations to initiate this bank have dragged on for two years as these five countries try to compartmentalise themselves within O'Neill's formulation and agreement was only reached at the 11th hour due to Sino-Indian locking of horns regarding headquarters and presidency.
O'Neill back in 2011 repeated his trick creating the MIST - Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey - on the next rung down as emerging markets as the BRICS.  Nothing much has come of this though as South Korea must resent being pigeon-holed alongside the other three, given its GDP per capita is a rival to many western European countries, not to mention being a member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).  Their commonalities are: a large population and market, a big economy at about 1% of global GDP each, and all are members of the G20.  But their elites, especially those in Seoul, must have recognised it would be slightly crackpot to band together by the inspiration of a very broad categorisation from a senior banker aiming to help his banking colleagues with a schematic rather creating a new international concert of powers.

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