Thursday, September 18, 2014

The end of the party?

This time tomorrow we will all know the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum, barring some administrative hiccup.  Since I was 'quietly confident' of a John Kerry victory in the 2004 presidential election (well in comparable terms he was better than the incumbent Dubaya), I try to eschew positivity for my preferred choice.  Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.  I will be disappointed if there is a majority for separation but I can now accept an 'independent' Scotland with equanimity.
I treasure, in essence, all that goes with the Union.  I'm not the only one.  Around the world, there been support for staying together, with a reaffirmation in the last days from the two most powerful countries in the world.  China once more expresses a desire for the Union, struggling with its own separatist problems (the abominable treatment of a moderate Uighur scholar is truly what it means to be oppressed, far from the flights of fancy by Scottish nationalists).  Our transalantic cousins have also been vocal in their support, both in Ottawa and Washington D.C.  In the Beltway, the preservation of the UK in its current form is one of the few topics that can unite Republicans and Democrats behind a common statement.  Two days ago, Bill Clinton made his second intervention in the debate and yesterday Barack Obama used the official White House Twitter account to repeat his backing for the Union as currently constituted.
Thinking of the USA and Canada is constructive.  Though the media rarely follows the Reithian rule of 'inform, educate, entertain', it does still present the news as interesting and immediate in its relevance to our lives.  For all the puffed-up 'neck-and-neck in the polls' talk, it might be wider than predicted.  It was said of the 2012 presidential election that it was 'too close to call' but Obama went on to beat Mitt Romney by five million votes and utterly trounce Romney with a landslide in the electoral college.  Private Eye punctured the pretensions of the pundits with glee.  Going back twenty years though, Quebec's independence movement fell short by an incredibly narrow margin, garnering 49.4% of the vote in the binary 'Yes/No' ballot.  Regular polling in Scotland say 93% of people will have voted by the end of today, with only 1% categorically rejecting their participation.  It will be nigh on unprecedented for a modern, entrenched democratic society to produce a turnout of 99% but in that event, if the 'Yes' campaign can take 80% of the remaining undecided who may vote, they would overhaul the the 'No' or 'Better Together' campaign.  So it could be: what was all the fuss about or wow, that was tight.
The worries about federalism from Thatcherite MPs doesn't concern me.  It is overdue whereby central government formalised its relations with the regions to prevent arbitrary prejudices being imposed from on high (e.g. the trialling of the poll tax in Scotland, not that it led to an immediate collapse in the Tory vote, the Conservatives winning two more seats North of the Border two years later over their 1987 result).  It is the belief that should Scotland stay in the Union, the proposals (some would say 'bribe') outlined by the 'No' campaign would make the land of Robbie Burns quasi-independent but that is only in comparison to what went before.  It could be said that the Länder in Germany are quasi-independent or for that matter the states in the USA, yet centrifugal forces show no signs of existence in these countries, let alone being overwhelming.
It hasn't always been the most pleasant of campaigns (clocking in at well over 700 days).  The police chief of Scotland says it has been by and large respectful and it exaggerates the case to talk of bullying and intimidation (though one wonders about his own affiliation when it comes to voting).  Nevertheless, the police chief is wrong.  CyberNats have kept up their steady drumbeat of nastiness, with pro-Union online activists rarely reaching such a pitch and focusing greatly on Alex Salmond (who is important as it will be he, not the Scottish people, who will negotiate an independence settlement with London should 'Yes' be successful).  Jim Murphy has been egged while trying to give a speech, Ed Miliband was first drowned out at the start of his tour of Scotland and later ambushed, jostled and heckled by foulmouths after his itinerary for a walkabout in Edinburgh Mall was leaked (not nearly as damaging though as the internal SNP memo that was leaked detailing a £450m black hole in Scottish NHS finances in the event of independence).  George Galloway has been threatened with a bullet.  'No' posters have been torn down or defaced while 'Yes' posters have all remained intact, according to the Scotland's 1990 Rugby Grand Slam-winning captain, David Sole, among others.  There have been 'Yes' protests against the BBC for 'bias' (code for legitimate reporting), demanding the sacking of its chief political editor, Nick Robinson, a sinister call in the context of an independent media.  There has been Salmond's direct pressure to intimidate St Andrew's University into supporting 'Yes' and indirect anti-English rhetoric.  The aggression of some of the 'Yes' campaign comes from the very top of the self-proclaimed 'chippy' SNP.  Yet according to the police chief of Scotland all is hunky-dory - he must be hoping to becoming the top cop of an entire country.
The oil claim has been one of most rancorous, the 'Yes' supporters saying it will be a bounty that will last long enough to diversify the economy into other sectors (if not last for 100 years), while 'No' and many oil experts predict a precipitous decline in oil revenues after 2018 as the easily accessible fields run dry.  Neither side has paid enough attention to 'Dutch Disease' which can hollow out a country's manufacturing and services economy and make a country even more dependent on the volatility of the markets.  Within the home of a larger UK economy, this threat doesn't exist.
For every argument, there is a counter-argument and the vast majority are set firm in their beliefs.  I hope Scotland remains part of Team GB (while remaining Team Scotland in their own right for certain events) but I won't any predictions until the dust has settled.

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