Learning one's lesson

In 2009, both the Iranians an the Zimbabwean administrations proved not only incapable of running thier countries in a moderate and tolerant fashion, but failed to even rig their elections adequately.  They were slightly cuaght off by the determination of millions against them and responded with state violence, leading to deeply illegitimate governments continuing in power.
Today, a 'moderate-among-hardliners', Hassah Rouhani, takes presidential office today in Iran.  He is not a moderate by Western standards and is a firm believer in his country's nuclear programme, but is more flexible and more likely to conciliate than Mahmoud Ahmahdinejad.  Of course, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wields aboslute power but he did not block Rouhani's victory as he did against the Green Movement's Mir-Hossein Mousavi.  Hence, a new president with a big mandate, instead of one governing repressively over a discontented and restive population.
There is more to play for in Zimbabwe as the office of president has very real power.  Morgan Tsvangirai had to call off his unexpected second-round campaign after finishing ahead in the popular vote over Robert Mugabe, following prolonged polictically motivated violence against his supporters and rallies.  At least 200 people died as the ruling party panicked.  While loathe to criticise a 'liberation hero' (and promptly shot down Botswana after it openly expressed disgust), the other leaders of southern Africa expressed disapproval of these tactics by Mugabe.  This year, Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party have taken no chances of failing to win, registering millions more non-existent people, including more than 100,000 people older than a hundred in a country with an average life expectancy in the mid-thirties.  But there is also comparatively little violence.  Thabo Mbeki (who was in awe of Mugabe after only being an exile rather than a fighter himself) is no longer South African president, but it would be impolitic for Zimbabwe's neighbours not to recognise Mugabe's victory in such relatively calm conditiions.  That recognition seems precisely what they are prepared to give.  Form is more important than substance in this instance and Mugabe has learned.