A sense of balance

One Marxist axiom is that history repeats itself, first time it is tragedy, second time it is farce.  And this may be borne out on the last day of the Premier League football season.  In 2009, Hull City, Sunderland and Newcastle United (plus Middlesbrough but they had the slimmest of chances to escape, so we won't mention them) were all in the dance of death to avoid relegation.  Newcastle failed to even get the point from a draw that would have kept them up on goal difference and went down.  In 2015, the same teams will be involved on the final round of games with the third relegation place still undecided.
A lot of pundits are saying Newcastle has had it, they're going down, history will repeat itself - some of these commentators with undisguised glee.  This partly stems from antipathy towards Mike Ashley, support for the underdog of Hull and general ill-feeling stemming from ignorance from the southern media towards Tyneside.  What a lot of them overlook is that by a further strange coincidence, Hull's last game is at home against a Manchester United side with nothing left to play for.  In 2009, Hull, despite their best efforts, lost that game 1-0.  Their goal difference this time round is actually better than Newcastle's but a repeat of 2009 of that result against the current crop of Old Trafford will send them down because crucially, unlike in 2009, Hull will be in the third relegation slot.  Moreover, unlike for Newcastle in 2009, a draw won't be enough - they have to win to have any chance while hoping Newcastle don't win and Sunderland don't get at least a point.  The pundits are saying that the Magpies' opponents, West Ham United, will be really geed up by Sam Allardyce who was sacked from Newcastle by Mike Ashley while Manchester United will coast along.  Well, hang on.  All of West Ham's players have one foot in the Algarve and know that Allardyce won't be around next season to chastise them for poor performance (Allardyce's contract will almost certainly not be renewed), whereas Man United's players are fighting for their future at their club, with Louis van Gaal deciding who should stay and who should go.
It's not inconceivable that Hull beat Man United and Newcastle fail to beat West Ham United, or indeed that Sunderland get so hammered at Arsenal midweek (the game in hand) followed up by another pasting at Chelsea on the final day, wrecking their goal difference to the extent that Newcastle only need a draw.  If one was being pessimistic, I would say it's 50/50 that Newcastle get relegated but let's not overegg the pudding.