The toll of the bellwether

There are so many stories emanating from last night/yesterday morning - at least 650.  Once again, bellwether seats Gravesham and Dartford returned MPs who would form part of the winning parliamentary party.  One anecdote though in a piece of analysis in the early hours before it was clear all was lost for Labour was how an advisor to Tony Blair in 1997 recalled how excited the soon-to-be prime minister was when the seat of Hove fell into the red ledger, Blair exclaiming, "If we can win in Hove, we can win anywhere."  It was the sign that Labour was returning to power after 18 years away and the kind of seat that had to be taken as sign of a general trend.  This little story was used to buttress what Ed Miliband needed to do to win the keys to Downing Street or at least take significant strides towards those steps.
As Labour continued to crash and burn through the night, it went little remarked that Hove switched from Conservative to Labour.  Indeed, the Conservatives reinforced their position in Kent and Sussex, eliminating the UKIP presence in Rochester and Strood and devouring their erstwhile coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats on the south coast, while retaining every other seat bar Hove.  As Pyrrhic victories go, Labour's late declaration triumph in Hove must be up there with them.  It is fair to say that by that part of the morning, no-one in Labour headquarters was getting excited.  This bellwether has suffered a significant toll on its reputation as a predictor of national electoral outcomes.