The road from Damascus

It is interesting how the civil war (and it is clearly that now) in Syria commands more attention than other parts of the world in open conflict or severe civil disturbance.  The border war between Sudan and South Sudan, the hostile intent of the Ethiopians and Eritreans towards each other, the chaos in Somalia and Mali (off the top of my head) and other hotspots around the world from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Ecuador to the Maldives – all are mentioned in passing, if at all.  The reason is that western forces are unlikely to send intervene militarily in these flare-ups.  President Obama understands that Americans as a whole are war-weary, engaged in the longest running war of the country’s history and any deployment of soldiers may jeopardise his re-election chances.  But ultimately he may not have a choice before November.

The Assad regime has placed its iron hand back over Damascus but increasingly that hand has turned to rust, with much of the country in no-one’s particular control.  The worry for the rebels is that they have just suffered their Tet Offensive.  This was a militarily disastrous campaign by the Viet Cong and some regular units of the North Vietnamese Army; trapped in streets against US firepower rather than being able to melt back into the jungle, thousands of irreplaceable Viet Cong veterans were annihilated or captured and the Viet Cong was never an existential threat to the South Vietnamese government again (Saigon being overrun by a conventional invasion by the north in 1975).  They had a glaring moment of triumph with the brief capture of the US Embassy but it was no more than symbolic.  The assassination of four security chiefs is a comparable rallying moment for the Free Syrian Army (which proved with video footage it carried out the controlled explosion by remote, scotching the regime’s claim of suicide bomber terrorism).  Yet with forces drawn away from other parts of the country, all rebel positions in the capital fell.  Though this allowed the FSA to advance in Aleppo and take over some border points,  with Damascus back under government sway, Assad can focus his units on the surviving rebel positions.  Tet was a military failure for the Vietnamese communists but a psychological victory, as the war - to many Americans - suddenly seemed to be unwinnable, even with all the lives and treasure spent.  With no free press in Syria, this will not be conveyed by the government controlled media.  Even now, the Syrian government is engaged in a grim parody of The Clash’s Rock the Casbah with fixed-wing aircraft bombarding Aleppo.

The blood of 20,000 people and rising is not just on the hands of Assad and his cronies but also on that of Russia, particularly Putin, with lesser roles played by China and Iran.  This all started when some children, who had daubed some anti-regime graffiti were arrested and tortured.  At peaceful protests, civilians were shot.  At funerals, more were shot and then mourners at subsequent wakes were also killed.  For months, civilians were pounded by government forces simply for having the temerity to speak out.  It was only then that the Free Syrian Army was founded as it was realised that the removal of Assad by warfare and in a guerrilla style was the only way forward.  This of course meant the Russians could claim that terrorists were indeed active in Syria, revisionism of which the defunct Pravda would have been proud.  Moscow’s claim to have not broken any laws or UN Resolutions is disingenuous considering they have vetoed all attempts to persuade Assad to stop his campaign of aggression against the populace.  It is Putin’s attempt to play great power politics irrespective of the blood of the innocent that has sunk the West’s reset with Russia.