Will this bring about the end?

The critical move by the Syrian Air Force of shooting down a Turkish military jet could bring about full-scale war between NATO and the regime of Bashar al-Assad.  The proxy war fought between Russia - supporting the regime to the extent of sending helicopter gunships – and the West is illustrated in this incident – an American-made Phantom F-4 no doubt shot down by Russian-built MiGs.  It also highlights the paranoia of Damascus; if someone is violating your airspace (if indeed it was Syrian airspace) you ask it to leave, you don’t blow it out of the sky.  Two salient questions arise that need to answered so as to determine whether Turkey now does invade, are (a) was the Phantom in international or Syrian airspace and (b) was a warning given to the pilots of the Phantom before the firing?

I have no doubt that if Turkey makes war, pursues this aggressively and NATO throws its full weight behind its easternmost member, the Assad regime will fall swiftly, probably in a palace coup by its own military.  If Turkey contents to set up safe havens or buffer zones along its border, then the Assad and his cronies may still limp on for a few more months, even into next year.

There are similarities with the overthrow of Idi Amin.  The Ugandan megalomaniac accused Tanzanian president Julius Nyere of sheltering army mutineers and took military action inside Tanzania (even annexing part of it).  A furious Nyere mobilised his troops, drove out the Ugandans and pursued them into the capital of Kampala, from where Amin fled.  The big difference is that where the Libyans supplied the weapons to a mass-murdering government in 1979 to defend itself, in 2012 they are selling weapons to the Free Syrian Army through the offices and purchasing power of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states.  Also, the House of Saud would never offer asylum to the Assad family.

The Arabian monarchies and emirates have no care for democracy but they see a valuable opportunity to weaken the influence of Iran (active in Syria against the rebels).  What the West fears most though is a power vacuum that could serve as a base for anti-Western militants.  The Assad despotism may collapse quickly but then what?  It’s easy to break something – it’s a lot harder to piece it back together.