Sunday, October 18, 2015

Is Merkel grabbing at straws?

Okay, so I wasn't prepared for Angela Merkel to so swiftly contradict me, promising to speed up Turkey's moribund application to the European Union in return for keeping refugees within Turkish borders.  And on that basis, David Cameron might just have won the treaty change he has so desperately craved.  Because if the refugees are to stay in Turkey, then one of the four freedoms of the EU - the Free Movement of Labour - will have to be amended; the East-Central Europeans will grit their teeth but as they are in despair about taking in such numbers of refugees, they may have to accept it.
If the EU can tolerate a Hungary run by the authoritarian Viktor Orban (and before him, Austria possessing a government coalition that included the fascist Freedom Party), the Erdogan's cult of personality and Putin-like tendencies should prove little problem.  Indeed, by failing to win enough seats in parliament to change the constitution (unlike Orban), Erdogan occupies a rather emasculated position as Turkish president, proving there is no substitute for the real Putin.
The EU could look the other way on the turmoil of the Middle East until it came knocking on its door.  For those in the halls of power in Europe's capitals, it was a case of Schrodinger's Refugee - the refugee could be considered simultaneously alive and dead as long as they remained in Syria/Middle East, allowing the EU to ignore what happened there.

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