Sunday, August 16, 2015

Regime continuity

Ah, things pile up, even when there is little to do - the act of vegging saps energy from other pursuits.  First up, China, specifically Tianjin, where the death toll from Thursday's devastating blasts soared past the 100 mark and authorities evacuated everyone in a three-kilometre zone for fear of burning sodium cyanide at the site.  China's state television channel has had to indulge in precarious editing after questions were asked as to why residential homes were so close to a dock storing hazardous materials and families reacted angrily to contract firefighters (as opposed to regular firefighters) not listed among the missing.  However, even their reporters are complaining of stinging eyes when they, unprotected, accompany units kitted out in hazmat suits.
China's Communist Party are wary because they know their history.  In 1911, an accidental blast at an army barracks initiated a mutiny that quickly spread to the whole country, sweeping away not just the rotting edifice of the Manchu Qing dynasty but the entire concept of imperial government.  President of the People's Republic and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, has been vigorous in his anti-corruption drive, taking out big-name 'tigers' as well as low-level 'flies', but corruption is still at epidemic levels and coupled with the plunging stockmarket and a slowing economy, the shipboard explosion and the subsequent chain reaction must chill the senior cadres to their bones.
Xi has bound the army ever closer to his personal authority, purging politically unreliable (to him) commanders in a so-called efficiency drive (which admittedly the People's Liberation Army needed).  So while the Tianjin explosion has eerie echoes of a century ago, as long as the PLA are on the side of the senior communist authorities, in particular Xi, a change in regime is unlikely.

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