Divided rule rather than divide-and-rule
As the battle rages for a hitherto largely unknown city of Kobane in what once was Syria, despite having a powerful tank arm watching on, Turkey sits on its hands and a US-led makes haphazard bombing runs in an operation of dubious legality but strong morality, a counsel of despair has taken root, where supposed allies are preparing their scripts as whom to finger for the blame. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has already conceded that the town will inevitably fall. Not wanting to aid the Kurds (twelve were killed in Turkey in pro-Kurd protests) with whom they have fought a decades-long insurgency until two years ago, nor do they want to give succour to President Bashar al-Assad by doing his dirty business for him, Ankara's position is worryingly similar to Josef Stalin's in World War Two, halting his Red Army forces before Warsaw and letting the Germans destroy the Free Polish uprising, the Nazis crushing the remnants of an independent Polish cadre that could have opposed a communist takeover when peace was finally achieved. The Islamic State is significantly degrading the Syrian Kurds and their environment to ensure that they will never be a thorn in the side of the Turkish state again. Meanwhile the three dozen Turkish tanks stand idle.
The hesitant US-led bombing reflects Barack Obama's cautious foreign policy. While the US airstrikes have had some success in Iraq, the international consensus wishes to preserve the regime in Baghdad. In Syria though, notwithstanding Assad's policy of letting IS dispose of the Free Syrian army for him, there is uncertainty whether damaging IS in Syria really serves the aim of driving Assad from power. As Ahmed Shekho, 24, head of the Syrian Kurdish students union, said, "For the Kurds, the American air strikes were the only hope, but they seem to have been more effective in Iraq. There's a valley to the south-west of Kobane that had 2,000 Isil vehicles in it for 11 days, yet the Americans have never targeted them. It's as if they only want to scare them or do a little damage."
Erdoğan has made noises about co-operating for a ground invasion, but he won't risk Turkish blood despite the nudges by the West to intervene. Similarly, with a month before the mid-term elections in the USA and Democrat candidates finding Obama as toxic to their chances as Republicans with George W Bush in 2006, the White House will not contemplate any boots on the ground whatsoever, even were Obama inclined to take a more decisive role in Syria (and every inclination shows that he isn't, even if this pushes the matter onto the next president's agenda - a timebomb for any Democratic presidential candidate). And in all this time, as its enemies point fingers at each other, IS drives relentlessly through these divisions, armed with the latest US weapons so kindly donated by a previously fleeing Iraqi army. As with Erdoğan's predictions about the fate of Kobane, it is a tragedy foretold.
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