Pragmatic Persia

The first step towards a comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and the West may have been described as a ‘historic mistake’ by Israeli Prime Minister Binymain Netanyahu (note not by ‘Israel’; when he was in the wilderness after his first tenure as premier, Netanyahu, who was raised by an ultra-Zionist father, was described as racist), but it is only a mistake if the USA had secretly green-lighted an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear installations, as now the diplomatic cover for that has vanished.  Israel has little regard for international law, sometimes justifiably so, as when destroying a nuclear powerplant in Iraq in the 1980s.  Yet, as with the Stuxnet virus or assassination of Iranian nuclear technicians, any military attack would have only postponed the attainment of a ‘bomb’, while potentially unleashing a firestorm in the Middle East and making Tehran all the more determined to acquire the ultimate protection.

Iran is not North Korea.  Its practices may be tyrannical and his rhetoric apocalyptic but the former land of the Shahs is not capricious.  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had a rise similar to Stalin, others thinking he could be controlled but ultimately coming to dominate everyone, but like Stalin in the 1920s and 30s, Khamenei is pragmatic (and has called for such a foreign policy) and is determined to preserve his ‘revolution’.  Whether that means with a nuclear weapon capacity or legal guarantees of protection from the West is still open to question but it may not be the end of the world were Iran to possess the ‘bomb’ (as the late neorealist Kenneth Waltz believed).  However, it would be simpler were for Iran to have just nuclear energy generation, safeguards and seals in place and sanctions lifted.  It could even snowball to an agreement on Syria.  Khamenei may prove to be the grey of Brehnev’s character rather than Stalin’s and détente reached as in the 1970s.

As with all conflict resolution, there will be spoilers from those with vested interests in continued confrontation, not just the administration in Tel-Aviv and Saudi Arabia’s monarchy but also hardline conservatives in both the USA and Iran.  Obama is stronger after the default crisis and Khamenei probably has the authority to face down even the staunchest of resistance from the Republican Guards.  But this communiqué that prevents an escalation of curbs while ensuring that Iran has given up some of its demands is the compromise that engenders goodwill and good faith on both sides to reach something more comprehensive.