Friday, March 18, 2011

With “all necessary means” bar a ground invasion authorised against the Gaddafi regime by the United Nations, let us hope that this will not only revitalise the rebel movement but encourage more so-called followers to abandon this grotesque family. I could not believe the UN, specifically Russia and China, would let such an aggressive stance pass, but to their credit they allowed it. Admittedly, Moscow and Beijing did abstain along with Germany, India and Brazil, but no-one voted against it and so tacitly endorsed it. So, Saif Gaddafi, are Russia, China, Germany and India still going to get those contracts you promised?
In all this, we should not overlook the role of Barack Obama who has played a blinder. A true liberal president. When this crisis involved civilians being massacred and the rebels began to fall back, he made the USA take a cool official stance, let others do the running, notably the UK and France. Not long after, the Arab League endorsed a no-fly zone and still the US underplayed it, allowing consensus to build. Then at the last moment, he placed on the Security Council table a far harder, more assertive policy, blindsiding Russia and China, who had been won round (quietly) to a no-fly zone. If Washington DC had taken up an aggressive stance from the start, this would never have been given legal cover. It just goes to show that hectoring megaphone diplomacy does not get you UN resolutions in your favour (cf. 2002-3). It is the difference between baring one’s teeth to prove that you have them, getting everyone’s backs up and being reasonable and not insecure, while never denying that you do possess teeth.
A genuine humanitarian crisis caused by deliberate man-made actions can galvanise the international community, especially where Russian and Chinese interests are not involved. I don’t expect all those critics of Obama to suddenly apologise – it’s not in their nature – they will no doubt call him weak and indecisive, but through his careful practice he has, in soaking up the flak, proved far stronger – and smarter – than they could ever be. In doing so, he has burnished the image of the USA as a benevolent force and made the UN relevant as well, the latter especially infuriating to conservatives, who believe that the true world government should be American and see the UN as a rival. Now, the attention switches to Libya with the West feeling a lot more relieved than they did two days ago. Technically, assassination of Gaddafi has been given legal cover, so long as it is not done with boots on Libyan terra firma. On the brink of defeat, Libya’s democratic revolution could now triumph.

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