Monday, March 03, 2008

Kremlin succession

The transfer of the Russian presidency (if not real power) from Vladimir Putin to Dmitri Medyvedev has not been free of fair, but does reflect that very French revolutionary concept - the will of the people. Medyvedev at 42 is not an aged successor like that of the old soviet Union or Cuba now and Putin himself is not much over 50. But what will happen in eight years time, when Medyvedev has to step down. It is inconceivable that, barring a sudden death, Putin will not still be politically active. So who will choose the president after Medyvedev and where will Medyvedev go? But that is for another day.
At the moment, it looks like the highly successful system of the adoptive Roman emperors from 96AD to 180AD. It was the high point of the post-Republic Roman Empire and deterioration set in once direct family bloodlines became involved. If one might compare it, Emperor Nerva, weak and presiding over increasing chaos is Yeltsin. Nerva adopted Trajan. Yeltsin 'adopted' Putin and the situation was turned around. Now Russia is self-confident and expansive as the Roman Empire under Trajan was (though under exceptionally different external politics). Trajan adopted Hadrian who brought about political retrenchment. Medyvedev may not be so bombastic in advancing Russian foreign policy (if Putin lets him). No political system is foolproof, but Russia has seemed to find one it is comfortable with.

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